Field notes
Building a Simple Demand Band Without Overfitting
Commercial meetings stall when forecasts arrive as a single point estimate. A simple high / base / soft band — with assumptions written underneath — keeps the debate on decisions rather than precision theatre.
Start from comparable weeks
Pick the last two years of weeks that share holiday position and major events. Use the middle 60% of outcomes for the base band; stretch high and soft only when capacity or marketing plans clearly differ.
Stop overfitting
Resist adding every secondary signal into the model. If a variable cannot change a booking-window action this month, leave it in the appendix. Teams use bands they can explain in five minutes.