Field notes
When Ferry Capacity Masks True Weekend Demand
Sold-out sailings feel like proof of demand. On the outlying islands, they often prove something narrower: early holds that clear when weather windows open, leaving walk-up travellers with nowhere to stand.
Lead time versus weather
Compare booking curves on clear Saturdays against typhoon-threat Saturdays in the same month. If early OTA volume is similar but same-day no-shows diverge sharply, capacity was never the constraint — release rules were.
Protect a walk-up slice
Holding a modest unbundled allocation for pier sales on morning weekends can raise yield without adding vessels. Publish the weather-linked release time to agents so they stop treating every seat as guaranteed through Friday night.