Field notes

Group Blocks Versus Transient Curves in Shoulder Season

Hotel lobby seating overlooking a bright atrium

Shoulder-season pace reports often look flat because large MICE or tour blocks sit untouched while leisure enquiry quietly firms. Revenue teams reading only the blended occupancy chart miss the transient story.

Split the view

Build two weekly curves: group on-hand and transient on-hand. If transient is pacing ahead of last year’s shoulder while group wash remains high, your problem is block hygiene, not leisure weakness.

Decision dates matter

Agree wash deadlines with sales before March opens. A forecast that assumes 30% group wash in week three is useless if contracts allow holds through week five.

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